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Market Conditions - March and April 2025

Real Estate Market Conditions - Monthly Update

March and April 2025

Resilience amid economic uncertainty

The early months of 2025 have unfolded against a backdrop of global economic uncertainty, yet our local market continued to show resilience. Both February and March saw steady growth in sales and inventory, reflecting a stable and balanced environment. On Salt Spring Island, these trends were evident, with the market appearing to be somewhat insulated and continuing to deliver strong opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

Sales On the Rise

In Victoria and the Gulf Islands, sales in February were up 25% from January and 12% compared to the previous year. March built on that momentum with a 16% increase from February and a 4% rise compared to the same month last year. This steady uptick in sales demonstrates that even amid economic headwinds, local demand remains robust.
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Steady Growth in Listings

Inventory levels in Victoria and the Gulf Islands have been climbing steadily. In February, active listings were up 10% from January and were 11% higher than the previous year’s figures. March saw a further increase of 15% from February and 14% year-over-year. This expanded inventory provides buyers with more options and reinforces market stability across the region, including Salt Spring Island.
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Market Remains Relatively Balanced

The sales-to-active listings ratio—a key indicator of market pressure—has remained near the balanced range (approximately 14–20%). While certain indicators hint at seller-favoured conditions, the overall scenario is one of equilibrium. Both buyers and sellers have had the advantage of a measured pace, enabling informed and thoughtful decision making.
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Prices Stable

Price trends in Victoria and the Gulf Islands have been moderate and measured, showing little change over the past two years. Average prices in February were approximately equal to January and were 2% higher than the same time last year. In March, average prices were up 2% compared to February but were down 2% compared to the same time last year. Stable prices even under unpredictable economic conditions, underscores the market’s resilience. Salt Spring Island, with its unique charm, continues to attract discerning buyers looking for stability in volatile times.
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Interest Rate Forecast Unclear

More favourable interest rates have played a crucial role in promoting an active spring market. Even as global economic uncertainties loom, buyer confidence has been boosted by more attractive financing options. However, the outlook for mortgage rates remains highly uncertain due to ongoing trade tensions and the impact of tariffs. The BCREA Mortgage Rate Forecast for March 2025 states “If the economy struggles to grow but avoids falling into a deep recession, all while inflation runs above target, our modelling suggests that the Bank of Canada may be hesitant to lower its policy rate below where it believes is neutral for the economy. That said, if inflation turns out to be transitory and fades after an initial shock, or if the economy deteriorates more than expected, then we assume the Bank would act more aggressively and cut its overnight rate by more than a full point.”
 

Outlook

Looking forward, the spring market cycle is expected to usher in more inventory, offering fresh opportunities despite broader economic uncertainties. Local conditions suggest that properties that are well-priced and thoughtfully presented will continue to garner strong interest. On Salt Spring Island, this trend is particularly significant, as buyers and sellers alike seek refuge in a market that offers both stability and potential for growth.

If you’re considering buying or selling, now is a great time to explore your options. Reach out for expert advice tailored to your real estate goals.

Gina Jacobsen, PhD
REALTOR®
(250)539-0828
gina@ginajacobsen.com

Sources:
British Columbia Real Estate Association Economics
Victoria Real Estate Board MLS® STATISTICS
Canadian Real Estate Association