Market Conditions - Fall 2025

Real Estate Market Conditions - Quarterly Update

Fall 2025

Typical Summer Market

The summer market in the Gulf Islands and Victoria followed a typical seasonal slowdown as many buyers and sellers paused for vacations. Despite softer month-to-month activity, sales and listings both outpaced last year, signaling a healthy market heading into fall.
 

August Sales Strong Despite Summer Lull

Single-family home sales eased through July (-20.9% MoM) and August (-15.7% MoM), reflecting the usual seasonal pause. Compared to last year, July was essentially flat (-0.3% YoY), while August was stronger (+6.3% YoY), showing that demand remains resilient.
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High Inventory for Summer

Inventory declined modestly month-to-month (-2% MoM July, -2.8% MoM in August), but both months saw significant gains compared to last year (+10.6% YoY in July, +12.8% YoY in August). This means buyers continue to enjoy more choice than in past summers, even as new supply slowed seasonally.
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Market Remains Balanced

The sales-to-active listings ratio hovered around the 20% mark — just above in July and just below in August. These readings confirm a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers hold a decisive advantage.
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Price Still Relatively Stable

Single-family home prices have maintained their pattern of long-term stability, having dipped slightly in July (-1.1% MoM, -0.7% YoY) before rebounding in August (+0.3% MoM, +2.4% YoY). This relative stability results from the overall balanced conditions seen in our regional real estate market for the past couple of years.
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Interest Rate Cut Expected to Stimulate Market

On September 17th, the Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate by 0.25 points after three consecutive holds. Lower borrowing costs are expected to stimulate demand, drawing more sidelined buyers back into the market this fall.
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Looking Forward to the Fall Market

The fall season is typically the second-busiest time of year for real estate. With higher inventory levels and easing rates, conditions are set for an active market that benefits both buyers and sellers.

Opportunities for Buyers

  • More listings than last year provide better selection and negotiation opportunities.
  • Lower mortgage rates improve affordability, making it easier to re-enter the market with confidence.

Opportunities for Sellers
  • Buyer demand is expected to strengthen this fall as lower rates take effect.
  • Well-priced homes remain competitive in a balanced market, with the potential for quicker sales as activity increases.

If you’re considering buying or selling, give me a call for expert advice and to begin exploring your options.

Gina Jacobsen, PhD
REALTOR®
(250)539-0828
gina@ginajacobsen.com

Sources:
Victoria Real Estate Board MLS® STATISTICS
British Columbia Real Estate Association Economics
Canadian Real Estate Association
Bank of Canada